Audio Overview of East Asia Pacific Issues, WEDNESDAY, 27 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In EAST ASIA PACIFIC

WEDNESDAY, 27 March 2019

 

THAILAND

 Pheu Thai and PPRP claim the right to form government.  The pro-Thaksin Shinawatra Pheu Thai Party and the pro-military Palang Pracharat Party are staking claim to form a coalition government in the lower house. The Pheu Thai and at least five other so-called pro-democracy political parties, including the Future Forward Party, are set to announce their intention to form the government at the Lancaster Hotel in Bangkok this morning. The Pheu Thai party won the most number of seats, 137 out of 500 in the lower house of the parliament according to unofficial results. The other parties are the Future Forward Party (87 seats), the Thai Liberal party or Seri Ruamthai (11), the Pracharat party(6), the New Economics party(6) and the Puea Chart party (5). Together, these parties represent 252 seats, enough to form the government but fall short of the 376 required to choose the prime minister. The Pheu Thai party has said it was willing to support Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumiathai Party, which won 39 seats, as prime minister of a coalition government.

Meanwhile, the Palang Pracharat Party’s secretary-general Sontirat Sontijirawong insisted that it was on the verge of forming a coalition government. He said the party will nominate Prayut Chan-ocha as Thailand’s next prime minister. He insisted that Palang Pracharat has the legitimacy to form the government because it won the most number of votes.

It remains unclear which political parties will form Thailand’s next government. The Pheu Thai-led coalition has the majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament, but it is far from having the required number to nominate the prime minister, even if the Bhumiathai Party joins the coalition. A Palang Pracharat-led coalition, together with the mostly military-appointed 250-strong Senate, may have the number to nominate the prime minister, but the coalition does not have the majority of seats in the Lower House. At any rate, the Bhumiathai Party is emerging as a key party for the Palang Pracharat party informing the majority coalition in the Lower House. The Bhumiathai Party is yet to pledge support to either the Pheu Thai Party or the Palang Pracharat Party.

 

INDONESIA

 New poll shows marginal loss of lead. Another pre-election survey released this week shows President Joko Widodo’s lead over his rival, Prabowo Subianto, has been cut though not as much as in the Kompas poll. In the Charta Politika survey, Jokowi and his running mate, Ma’ruf Amin, secured 53.6% of the votes signifying little changed from 53.2% in January. Meanwhile, Prabowo and Sandiaga Uno received 35.4% of votes, up from 34.1% in January. The president’s lead was cut to 18.2%, from 19.1% in January.

 

Rebels call for boycott of elections. The United Liberation Movement for West Papua has urged all Papuans in Indonesia to boycott the April 17 elections. The ULMWP Chairman Benny Wenda said the elections are not for the Papuan people but for Indonesia. The ULMWP’s call for election boycott follows similar advocacy by the Indonesian People’s Front for West Papua and the Papuan Student Alliance. The student alliance declared a boycott of the upcoming elections because both presidential candidates had not handled human rights violations in Papua well. Papua-based voters represent less than two percent of the country’s total voters. It is uncertain if the liberation movement’s call for election boycott will be heeded. In the 2014 election, Widodo garnered significantly more votes in Papua and West Papua than Prabowo.

 

 MYANMAR

 Ceasefire will not be extended. Myanmar military spokesperson said that the military’s four-month ceasefire in the country’s northern and eastern regions, which began on December 21, will end as planned on April 21 and will not be extended. He said that the ceasefire period would have yielded more results if the armed ethnic groups had taken advantage of the opportunity to pursue peace. More conflicts are expected to rage in Myanmar. Fighting between the military and the rebel Arakan Army has been intensifying in the Rakhine State, which is excluded from the temporary ceasefire zone. More clashes are now likely in other regions of the country, undermining the National League for Democracy-led government’s peace initiative. Clients are advised to avoid Rakhine and its neighboring states as fighting between the military and ethnic rebels continues.

 

Supreme Court to rule on journalist’s conviction. Myanmar’s Supreme Court agreed to rule on an appeal by two Reuters reporters who have been sentenced to seven years for their coverage of Myanmar’s violent suppression of Rohingya Muslims. Justice Soe Naing adjourned the case yesterday without setting a date for the ruling. The top court’s decision gives the two reporters the chance that their conviction would be withdrawn, their jail terms would be reduced or they would face new judicial action. It remains to be seen how the top court will rule.

 

MALAYSIA

Mahathir disappointed with a coalition MP. The Parti Keadilan Rakyat President Anwar Ibrahim defended Permatang Puah MP Nurul Izzah Anwar over her remarks labeling Prime Minister Mohamad a former dictator. Anwar said Nurul Izzah’s remarks were directed generally against the Pakatan Harapan government and not specifically at Mahathir. Anwar said he and his family were firmly behind Mahathir’s leadership and will allow the prime minister the space he needs to carry out his policies.  Anwar’s statement is both protective of his daughter and respectful of the prime minister. It again puts no pressure on Mahathir who has said he would honor his promise to transfer power to Anwar after two years as prime minister. Mahathir is yet to announce a definite plan on leaving the premiership.

 

Audio Overview of South Asia Issues, TUESDAY, 26 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In SOUTH ASIA

Tuesday, 26 March 2019

 

PAKISTAN

Pakistan Peoples Party leads a protest march.  The Pakistan Peoples Party has launched a protest march against the government from Karachi today. The symbolic march will commence from Karachi’s Cantonment Railway Station and proceed to Larkana where they will have a political rally. The party has planned several political events along the way. The protest march comes after the party leaders, Bilawal and Asif Ali Zardari were called-in for questioning by the National Accountability Bureau in corruption cases against them. Clients are advised to avoid all political and religious event in Pakistan.

 

China transfer USD 2.2 billion. China has transferred USD 2.2 billion in new loans to the State Bank of Pakistan as part of the economic assistant package. Pakistan’s debt to China has been mounting primarily from infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the total debt is reportedly more than USD 60 billion. The CPEC has been under attack by regional separatist groups in Baluchistan and the Chinese troops have been reportedly deployed to protect the projects from insurgent attacks. The new loan is likely to help Pakistan with the depleted foreign exchange reserves.

 

SRI LANKA 

Iranian vessel caught with heroin. An Iranian vessel was detained by the Sri Lankan Navy this week off the southern coast of the country. The vessel was escorted to Colombo harbor. Authorities recovered more than 100 kg of heroin worth more than USD 1 billion. Authorities have detained nine Iranians nationals. The vessel reportedly arrived from Pakistan when it was detected and detained in the southern seas. Investigators suspect that the vessel is linked to the underworld kingpin Makandure Madush who was detained in Dubai recently

Audio Overview of East Asia Pacific Issues, TUESDAY, 26 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In EAST ASIA PACIFIC

TUESDAY, 26 March 2019

 

THAILAND

Parties start negotiations to form a coalition. Two political parties have started negotiations to form a coalition government in Thailand. The two parties are the Pheu Thai Party, which is linked to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the pro-military Palang Pracharat Party. The Pheu Thai Party won the highest number of parliamentary seats, while the Palang Pracharat Party garnered the most number of votes. The Pheu Thai Party captured 135 seats, but it won only the second biggest number of votes, 7.4 million (21% of votes), after the Election Commission’s unofficial 94% vote count. The Palang Pracharat won only 97 seats, the second biggest, but it won the popular vote, with 7.9 million votes (22.2%). The Pheu Thai Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Sudarat has demanded that the party with most seats should be given the first shot at forming a coalition government. There is a possibility that the liberal anti-military parties including the Future Forward Party will join the Pheu Thai Party to form a coalition, the parties combined have 215 seats in the lower house. Smaller parties in this scenario will play a crucial role, including the Bhumjaithai Party which has 51 seats.

It is unclear which of the two parties will be the first to form a governing coalition. A party or coalition of parties needs 251 seats to have a majority in parliament and secure the right to nominate the prime minister. If the parties fail to form a majority coalition, the 250-member Senate will come in to elect the prime minister together with the 500-member Lower House. Such a scenario will make Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha retain leadership of Thailand. While Prayut is may remain as the country’s premier, the country faces the likelihood of an unstable government. Irrespective of which party leads a coalition government, the opposition will have enough support to frustrate the government’s legislative efforts.

 

INDONESIA

Farmers support Widodo. The Indonesian Farmers Association (HKTI), acclaimed as the biggest farmers’ group in the country, declared its support for President Joko Widodo in the April 17 presidential election. Widodo welcomed hundreds of HKTI representatives at the State Palace in Jakarta yesterday. The farmers’ backing of Widodo came a few days after some 10,000 businesspeople declared their support for the president and his running mate, Ma’ruf Amin in Istora Senayan, Central Jakarta on March 21. The president is expected to win re-election despite a recent survey by Kompas showing his lead over Prabowo Subianto has been cut to 11.2%. Other earlier polls show Widodo winning by as much as 20%.

 

Suspected terrorist arrested. Indonesian police arrested a militant allegedly belonging to the Jamaah Ansharut Daulah in North Lampung on March 22. Police said that the suspect, identified only as K, was on the police’ most-wanted list and had undergone military training in Lampung. K was the 10th suspected JAD terrorist to be arrested this month. Continued arrests of suspected terrorists highlight pro-active efforts and preparedness against the Islamist terror groups. The arrests though also point to the possibility that there are some terrorists in the country waiting to launch their attacks.

 

 MYANMAR

Military meets with the political parties.  The Myanmar military has clashed with the Arakan Army in more than 100 different encounters in the Rakhine State since the militants attacked police outposts in early January. Three military leaders made this disclosure in a press conference yesterday. The military said that the military’s recent clashes with the Arakan Army, including the shooting of alleged civilians in Mrauk-U township, were counter-insurgency measures. Earlier the Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing told 32 political parties in Naypyitaw that the military was exercising restraint and patience in order to avoid instability in Myanmar. The meeting was organized by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. The fighting in the Rakhine state is likely to intensify with the military justifying its reported shooting of civilians.  Clients are advised to avoid the Rakhine state and its neighboring states as fighting between the military and ethnic rebels continues.

 

MALAYSIA

Mahathir disappointed with a coalition MP. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad voiced his disappointment with the recent remarks of Permatang Pauh MP Nurul Izzah Anwar about the Pakatan Harapan government. Nurul Izzah, Anwar Ibrahim’s daughter, told a Singaporean media that she was “brokenhearted” having to once again work with Mahathir. She said she would be serving her final term as a lawmaker due to her disappointment with the government’s slow reform efforts. Nurul Izzah could be unhappy with Mahathir’s leadership because the opposition, the United Malays National Organization party, has gained some grounds following its victory in two recent by-elections with the backing of Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS). It is also unclear whether Mahathir will be transferring the leadership of the country to Anwar. Mahathir’s party is pressuring him to keep the premiership until the next general election and Mahathir is yet to announce a definite plan on leaving the premiership.

Audio Overview of South Asia Issues, MONDAY, 25 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In SOUTH ASIA

Monday, 25 March 2019

 

INDIA

Security tightened in Kashmir.  Security in Kashmir has been tightened and paramilitary personnel have been deployed across the state after the pro-independence Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front was banned by the government. Tensions in the valley have been rising since last week after the death of a school teacher in police custody which sparked widespread protest in the region. The ban on the organization is part of the wider operation to crackdown on the separatist groups in the state.  Clients are advised to avoid non-essential travel to Kashmir and be aware of the frequent armed encounters and protests in the state.

 

BANGLADESH

Protests continue in Bangladesh. Students in the northern city of Sylhet and other cities across the country continued their protest yesterday. The protest was triggered by the death of a student last week by a speeding bus. The protests have continued last week but they have remained low profile. Meanwhile, the local elections across Bangladesh at the sub-district level have been marred by sporadic violence resulting in low voter turnout. In 117 subdistrict, voting at 89 polling stations had to be suspended due to allegations of vote rigging and ballot stuffing. Security in Dhaka has been increased in preparation for the Independence Day tomorrow. Police will be setting up security checkpoints and road black to control traffic. Clients are advised to avoid traveling to smaller districts and villages of Bangladesh. Avoid all political and religious events.

 

NEPAL

Government warns against cooperation with the CPN. The Ministry of Home Affairs has warned the general public, businesses and all organizations against extending any support or assistance, including donation, to the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal (CPN).  The ministry in a press statement said any person or organization found acting contrary to the government appeal and assisting the CPN will be treated on par with the outlawed group and brought to book under the prevailing laws. The Ministry has requested everyone to report to police if any threat or extortion demand is made by the group. The government has heightened the security level and crackdown on the Chand-led communist party following the decision to ban its activities on March 12. The decision followed a blast outside Ncell office on February 22 which killed one person and injured two. The Chand-led CPN had claimed responsibility for the bombing. Nepal Police has stepped up action against the CPN and its leaders and cadres who were banned from organizing programs or participating in rallies and assemblies. Nepal Police claimed to have confiscated two loaded pistols, explosives, ammunition and communication devices from Hemanta Prakash Oli, a standing committee member and in-charge of the mid-region command of the CPN, and eight cadres of the outfit arrested from Kavre district yesterday. Clients are advised to be aware of the growing tensions between the government and the CPN. Avoid traveling to rural areas known to strongholds of the CPN and alerts the relevant authorities if an extortion call is made by the party.

Audio Overview of East Asia Pacific Issues, MONDAY, 25 March 2019

Paul Quaglia – APAC Assistance Director

Major Issues In EAST ASIA PACIFIC

MONDAY, 25 March 2019

 

THAILAND

The Palang Pracharat Party wins most votes. In Thailand’s general election held yesterday, the pro-military Palang Pracharat Party appeared to have won the most votes, followed closely by the Pheu Thai Party as vote count reached 92% at 10:30 PM yesterday. The Election Commission said 66% or 33.7 million of voters cast their votes. According to data provided by the commission’s Rapid Report System, the Palang Pracharat Party won more than 7.5 million votes (22.2%) , the Pheu Thai Party won 7.1 million votes (21%), the Future Forward Party won 5.2 million votes (15%), the Democrat Party 3.2 million (9.5%) votes and the Bhumjaithai Party won 3.2 million votes. The Democrats did not win a seat in Bangkok. The parliamentary seats in the capital were divided between the Palang Pracharat Party, the Pheu Thai Party, and the Future Forward Party. Because of the Democrat Party’s poor showing, Abhisit Vejjajiva resigned as the party’s leader. However, Abhisit announced his party’s willingness to coalesce with other parties.

The vote results indicate that the Thais respect the army leadership more than the established parties. The Future Forward Party is expected to coalesce with the Pheu Thai Party and its other smaller allies, but their combined votes are unlikely to get the majority seats in the Lower House. The Palang Pracharat is expected to work to form a coalition, gathering smaller parties like the Democrat Party. It is uncertain though whether Palang Pracharat’s prospective coalition government will be able to gain a majority in the House of Representatives.

Foreign media has again shown a lack of understanding and impartiality. Channel News Asia gave a microscopic drill down on two Singapore Companies with exposure to Thailand including a bank and an F&B company and falsely attributed a two percent decrease to Thai domestic matter despite the STI, Nikkey, KOSPI, Shanghai, Shenzen, and Hang Send all being down 1.5 to 3%. In the same segment, they failed to mention important issues including the strong showing of the Palang Prcharat Party in yesterdays elections allowing increased and continued stability for Thailand and recent currency strength as well as the lack of volatility and conditions allowing for a continued strong account surplus.  A forecast of stability without volatility will indeed allow necessary structural changes and a rare chance in Thailand to have a government wanting to actually govern.

Immediately after this poorly constructed and misleading presentation, Channel News Asia contradicted themselves by having a foreign analyst from Pinebridge who made valid points that highlighted the incorrect nature of Channel News Asia’s attempts to link Singapore Share Price decreases to the Thai market.

 

INDONESIA 

Widodo inaugurates the first phase of MRT. The first phase of MRT Jakarta, Indonesia’s first subway, opened yesterday with President Joko Widodo officially inaugurating it at the Hotel Indonesia station. The first phase of the MRT line covers 13 stations along a 15.7-km route from Lebak Bulus station in South Jakarta to the Hotel Indonesia circle in Central Jakarta. Yesterday also marked the groundbreaking ceremony for the second phase of MRT Jakarta, which will span 7.8 km, connecting the Hotel Indonesia traffic circle to Kota station in West Jakarta. The project is expected to be completed by 2024. It is yet to be seen whether MRT Jakarta will significantly reduce traffic congestion in Greater Jakarta.

Widodo criticizes Subianto. President Joko Widodo was combative when he addressed thousands of supporters in his team’s first campaign rally in Yogyakarta on March 23. “I have been silent for four and a half years in the face of slander. But today in Yoga, I tell you, I will fight,”. He reportedly criticized his opponent openly, former military general Prabowo Subianto, something he had previously refrained from doing. Widodo said that Indonesia cannot be entrusted to someone with no governing experience. It appears that Widodo has been fired up by a recent survey by Kompas showing that Prabowo is gaining significant ground weeks ahead of the April 17 presidential election. Most other surveys indicate that Widodo has a comfortable lead reaching 20 points over the former general who ran against Widodo unsuccessfully in 2014. Widodo’s team is taking the result of the Kompas poll seriously.

 

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Opposition calls on the government to respect the referendum. The opposition leader MP Belden Namah said the government must respect the outcome of the Bougainville referendum in October. He was reacting to Prime Minister Peter O’Neill’s statement that the vote is not binding as the national parliament will decide the final outcome. In the event of Bougainville Island voting for full independence, it is uncertain whether the national parliament, which is now dominated by allies of the prime minister, will endorse the outcome.

 

 MYANMAR

Fighting continues in Rakhine. Fighting between the Myanmar military and the ethnic rebel Arakan Army continues in Rakhine State. The military reported yesterday that on March 22, the Arakan Army ambushed their troops in two separate incidents in Yaygaungchaung village and Setaung village in western Rakhine. The attacks reportedly left two government soldiers injured and three ethnic rebels dead. On March 22, seven other civilians were killed when the security forces reportedly opened fire on Si Taung Gyi village in Buthidaung township in northern Rakhine state. Eight other villagers were injured. Locals said the fatalities included six ethnic Rakhines and one Rohingya Muslim who was hiding in a bomb shelter when they were fired upon. The locals fled the village. The rebel Arakan Army claimed that there was no fighting between the group and the military and that the military just wanted to punish the villagers. The fighting in Rakhine is likely to intensify with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army threatening to join the war. Eight armed ethnic groups that have not signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, including the Arakan Army and the TNLA, were supposed to separately meet with the military’s representatives to discuss ending conflicts on March 22. However, the absence of reports may suggest that the dialogues did not proceed. Clients are advised to avoid Rakhine and its neighboring states as fighting between the military and ethnic rebels intensifies.

 

THE PHILIPPINES

Communist spokesperson arrested. The military arrested a spokesperson of the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) in Nagcarlan in southern Luzon yesterday. Frank Fernandez was the sixth NDFP official arrested since the government terminated its peace talks with the Communist Party of the Philippines in late 2017. More arrests of leaders of the communist movement are expected as attacks in the countryside by the New People’s Army are likely to continue. Clients in the Philippines are advised to employ high-risk security measures in known communist hotbeds, including the Cagayan region in Northern Luzon, the Bicol region in Southern Luzon and the entire Mindanao Island.

Audio Overview of South Asia Issues, FRIDAY, 22 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In SOUTH ASIA

FRIDAY, 22 March 2019

 

INDIA

Security situation continues to worsen in Kashmir.  The security situation in Kashmir continues to worsen this week. Two army soldiers were reportedly killed yesterday in two separate grenade attacks in the Sopore district. In another encounter between separatist militants and the security forces in the Bandipora district today, a child has been taken hostage by the militants. The operation to rescue the hostage is ongoing.       Security forces could evacuate five other hostages when the encounter began. Ceasefire violation across the line of control continues with heavy shelling and firing from both sides since the Indian airstrikes on February 27.  Clients are advised to avoid non-essential travel to Kashmir and be aware of the frequent armed encounters and protests in the state.

 

BANGLADESH

Students continue to protest in Dhaka. Students in Dhaka continued their demonstration yesterday at Pragati Sarani in the Bashundhara Residential Area of Dhaka. Students demonstrated by forming a human chain. Students in Rajshahi and Chittagong joined the protests in solidarity with students in Dhaka. Students have threatened to relaunch the protests on Sunday if no concrete steps are taken to ensure road safety. Some students in other areas reportedly blocked the roads and started checking the license and registration of vehicles. The protests erupted this week after a student was killed by a speeding bus in Dhaka.

 

PAKISTAN

China announces economic aid. China has announced an economic assistance package of USD 2.1 billion in loans to offset the depleted foreign exchange reserves. China was not as forthcoming as the other allies of Pakistan in aiding the country to mitigate the economic crisis.  Prime Minister Imran Khan had to make several visits to allied countries including the UAE and Saudi Arabia to seek economic assistance. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves were down to USD 6 billion and currently has a reserve of USD 13 billion, the Arab countries were provided more than USD 12 billion in aid.  Pakistan’s debt to China of more than USD 60 billion has been a concern which proved to be a challenge in their failed negotiations with the IMF for economic assistance.

 

Audio Overview of East Asia Pacific Issues, FRIDAY, 22 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In EAST ASIA PACIFIC

FRIDAY, 22 March 2019

 

INDONESIA

Widodo changes campaign strategy. The campaign team of President Joko Widodo and his running mate, Ma’ruf Amin, will reportedly shift its campaign strategy to door-to-door campaigns to inform the public of the president’s achievements. Campaign head Erick Thohir pledged that he will intensify communication with religious and community leaders, the coalition parties, entrepreneurs, volunteers, and activists. Erick’s statement comes after the latest Kompas pre-election survey showed that Widodo’s big lead over Prabowo Subianto has narrowed weeks ahead of the April 17 elections. Widodo remained 11.8% ahead of Prabowo in the Kompas survey. However, the planned change in the campaign strategy of the Widodo team shows that the team is taking the poll result seriously.

 

THAILAND

Elections on Sunday. Thailand will be having its general election on Sunday, March 24. It will be the country’s first general election in eight years, after the military intervention in 2014. People will be voting for members of parliament to fill up the country’s 500-member Lower House. A panel set up by the military government will be appointing members of the 250-member Senate. The election is largely a four-cornered fight between parties supportive of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, led by the Pheu Thai Party, the Democrat Party and the new parties including the Future Forward Party and the pro-regime Palang Pracharat Party. A record number of people are expected to vote on March 24. The Election Commission reported on March 17 that, 87% of the 2.6 million voters who registered for early voters cast their ballots. Voter turnout in Thailand has steadily increased over the decades from about 60% in the 1990s to 75% in the last election in 2011. The outcome of the election is uncertain. Analysts have opined that no party will have majority seats in the parliament and that the Senate will have a decisive vote in electing the next prime minister.

 

MYANMAR

Rebels and government issue joint statement. Myanmar’s civilian government and the eight ethnic armed groups that have not signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, issued a joint statement after their collective peace discussion yesterday. The delegates agreed to continue meeting frequently to work towards resolving their political differences and ending armed conflicts. The eight ethnic rebel organizations will be separately meeting the military in Naypyitaw today. It is uncertain how the rebel groups’ meetings with the military will go, particularly that of the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The Arakan Army is currently at war with the military in Rakhine State and the TNLA has threatened to join the Arakan Army. The future of the peace process is also uncertain due to ongoing hostilities. The rebels reportedly want no less than a federal Myanmar and the rewrite of the present military-scripted Constitution. However, the military and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party are opposed to changing the Constitution. Clients are advised to avoid the Rakhine and its neighboring states as fighting between the military and ethnic rebels intensifies.

 

THE PHILIPPINES

Case filed against China in ICC. Two former high-ranking Philippine government officials have filed a case against Chinese President Xi Jinping in the International Criminal Court (ICC). Former Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario and former Ombudsman Conchita Carpio Morales have accused China of “atrocious actions in the South China Sea and within Philippine territory” on March 13, four days before the Philippines’ withdrawal from the ICC on March 17. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said both China and the Philippines are beyond the jurisdiction of the ICC. He said the filing of the case will not affect the Philippines’ diplomatic relations with China. Duterte is set to visit China for the fourth time in April. The ICC case is not likely to affect China’s actions in the South China Sea. China disregards the ICC and is not a signatory to the Rome Statute which sets the legal framework for the ICC.

 

NEW ZEALAND

Casual weapons banned. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced an immediate ban on assault rifles and semi-automatic firearms yesterday as part of sweeping changes to the nation’s gun laws. The new law was announced after the shootings in two mosques in Christchurch that left 50 people dead and dozens injured on March 15. Ardern said another tranche of reforms will cover the firearm registry and licensing. The amendments to New Zealand’s gun laws reportedly enjoy popular support. It is hoped that the new laws will prevent another gun-violence incident in the country..

 

CHINA

Explosion in chemical plant kills six people. Six people were killed and more than 30 others were injured after a huge explosion hit a chemical plant in Yancheng City in eastern China yesterday. Authorities are investigating the cause of the accident. The incident is the latest in a string of industrial accidents in China, where safety regulations are often poorly enforced. Authorities are expected to revisit the enforcement of industrial safety laws.

Audio Overview of South Asia Issues, THURSDAY, 21 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In SOUTH ASIA

THURSDAY, 21 March 2019

 

PAKISTAN

Bilawal and Zardari questioned by the NAB.  Bilawal Bhutto and former president Asif Ali Zardari were summoned by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) for questioning in connection with three separate cases of corruption. The Pakistan People’s Party accused the government of using the law enforcement agencies to target the opposition parties. The party had called on its supporters from across the country to assemble at the NAB headquarters in Rawalpindi to express solidarity with their leaders. Security in the area was increased and more personnel were deployed to disperse the party supporters. Supporters of the party reportedly clashed with the security personnel leaving several people injured. More protests can be expected in major cities of Pakistan as the investigations continue against the opposition leaders.

 

Iranian border guards rescued. Four abducted Iranian border guards were rescued yesterday in the Chagai district of the southern district of Baluchistan by the Pakistani military. The border guards were reportedly rescued from a hideout used by terror groups in the region. In November last year, Pakistani security forces had rescued five of the 12 Iranian border guards who were abducted by militants in October last from Lulakdan area near the Pakistan-Iran border. Jaish al-Adl, a terrorist group operating in the region, had claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. Clients are advised to avoid the border areas with Iran and Afghanistan in Pakistan where the terror groups are known to target security forces and civilians.

 

INDIA

 Iranian border guards rescued. More than nine civilians were injured in a bomb blast yesterday in the Bijapur district of the central state of Chhattisgarh. The Bijapur district is plagued by the activities of the left-wing Maoist rebels known as Naxals. Several other districts of the state are also plagued by the Naxal activities. Naxals are likely to increase their attacks before the elections scheduled for April 11. Clients are advised to avoid the Naxal infested areas in the central states including Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Maharashtra.

Audio Overview of East Asia Pacific Issues, THURSDAY, 21 March 2019

Bhargav Reddy – APAC Assistance Operations Assistant

Major Issues In EAST ASIA PACIFIC

THURSDAY, 21 March 2019

 

INDONESIA

New Survey shows narrowing lead.  A pre-election survey by Litbang Kompas shows the big lead of President Joko Widodo over his challenger, Prabowo Subianto, has narrowed weeks ahead of the April 17 elections. Widodo though remains 11.8% ahead of Prabowo. The survey was conducted on 2,000 respondents across Indonesia’s 34 provinces between February 22 and March 5. Widodo was favored by 49.2% of respondents, surpassing Prabowo’s 37.4%. In Kompas’ survey in October, Widodo was ahead by 19.9% of Prabowo. The results of the Kompas survey is unique as the latest surveys of other pollsters, including Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting and Australia-based Roy Morgan, show Widodo ahead of Prabowo by about 20 points. The reduced margin of Widodo over Prabowo in the Kompas survey indicates that the outcome of the Indonesia elections remains uncertain.

 

Terror suspect arrested.  Yesterday a counter-terrorism squad arrested a suspected member of pro-Islamic State terrorist group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) in Berau, East Kalimantan. Authorities said the suspect communicated with several other terrorist suspects earlier arrested in North Sumatra. They said the suspect planned to attack security officers. The arrest of terror suspects indicates that there could be more terrorists in the country who now have more motivation to launch attacks. Terror groups can potentially stage reprisal attacks on security forces or target government establishments. Clients in Indonesia are advised to employ extreme caution. Avoid visiting government offices, security posts, religious sites and other places usually targeted by terrorists.

 

THAILAND

High voter turnout expected. Surveys by several institutions show that an overwhelming number of people are planning to vote on March 24 which will be Thailand’s first general election in eight years, after the military government delayed elections repeatedly. The Election Commission has reported that on March 17, 87% of the 2.6 million voters who registered for early voters cast their ballots. Voters turnout in Thailand has increased steadily over the decades, from about 60% in the 1990s to 75% in the last election in 2011. The outcome of the election is uncertain. Supporters of the military government, including the Palang Pracharat Party, are expecting that no party will have majority seats in parliament and that the 250-member military-appointed Senate will have a major role in electing Thailand’s next prime minister with the 500-member Lower House.

 

MYANMAR

Peace talks set to begin today. Another round of peace discussion will start in Naypyitaw today. The Myanmar government invited eight armed ethnic groups that have not signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). The eight groups reportedly represent 80% of all ethnic rebels in the country. The government said all eight groups have confirmed their attendance at the peace talks. It is still uncertain who among the eight groups will participate in the peace talks. The rebels reportedly want no less than a federal Myanmar and the redraft of the present military-scripted Constitution. The National League for Democracy-led civilian government is also pushing for amendment of the Constitution. However, the military and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party are opposed to changing the Constitution. Conflicts between the military and the Arakan Army has been raging in the Rakhine State and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army has threatened to join the Arakan Army. Both the TNLA and the Arakan Army are among the eight groups invited by the government to the peace process. Clients are advised to avoid the Rakhine and its neighboring states as fighting between the military and ethnic rebels intensifies.

 

THE PHILIPPINES

Duterte terminates peace process. President Rodrigo Duterte terminated the appointment of all government peace negotiators with the communist rebels yesterday. The peace talks with the Maoist-inspired rebels collapsed in November 2017 after Duterte signed a proclamation formally terminating the discussion with the communist rebels. Duterte accused the Communist Party of the Philippines of insincerity and denounced its armed wing, the New People’s Army, for its continued attacks on government forces and businesses in the countryside. The termination of the peace negotiators highlights the Duterte governments resolve not to re-open peace talks with the communists. The communist rebels will have to wait for the next government for a new chance at peace negotiations. The rebels are expected to stage more attacks in the countryside. Clients in the Philippines are advised to avoid non-essential travel in known communist hotbeds, including the Cagayan region in Northern Luzon, the Bicol region in Southern Luzon and the entire Mindanao island.

 

CAMBODIA

EU delegation completes review. A European Union (EU) delegation was in Cambodia for a two-day visit until March 20 as part of the review and monitoring process for the possible withdrawal of the continent’s Everything But Arms (EBA) trade scheme from the country. The EU decided in February to launch a six-month monitoring period to determine whether to continue the trading scheme under which Cambodian exports enter the European market tax-free. The EU threatened to withdraw EBA in response to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s crackdown on his opponents. Any withdrawal of the scheme will be decided by the European Commission by February 2020.

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