Republican leader Donald Trump, alongside running mate James Vance, won the U.S. Presidential election on November 5, set to take office in January 2025. Trump pledged to uphold his ‘America First’ agenda, though international reactions are mixed, with concerns about possible volatility in U.S. foreign policy. APAC Assistance analyzed how Trump’s re-election might impact global geopolitics, including potential trade tensions with China, effects on Europe, and changes in U.S. relations with the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa.
Trade War & Economies
A key concern with Trump’s re-election is the potential intensification of the US-China trade war. His prior term saw tariffs on Chinese goods and restrictions on companies like Huawei. Recently, Trump proposed the “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act,” which if enacted, could lead the U.S. to shift manufacturing to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia.
Trump’s re-election is not expected to significantly alter US-Middle East economic relations. In Africa, Trump is unlikely to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). However, his administration is expected to retain initiatives like Prosper Africa and the Development Finance Corporation.
Geopolitics & Security
President-elect Trump is expected to maintain the US “One-China” policy, continue arms sales to Taiwan, and promote a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” with a firm stance against Chinese aggression. Taiwan’s strategic semiconductor role may prompt increased US military exercises in the South China Sea, though Trump’s expectation that Taiwan should pay for US security support could strain defense relations.
In Ukraine, despite Trump’s talk of swiftly ending the war, the US is likely to maintain support amid rising Russian-North Korean ties, with the potential pursuit of a ceasefire requiring robust peace plans.
In the Middle East, US policy is expected to remain stable, with continued sanctions on Iran. In Africa, Trump’s administration aims to address conflicts and combat armed groups in regions such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Libya, West Africa, and the Horn of Africa.
Bilateral Relations
For over 70 years, the US has served as a security guarantor for Asia-Pacific nations, including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan, with Thailand as a longstanding ally since 1954. Following Trump’s election victory, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was among the first to discuss strengthening ties, while Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol also expressed intentions to solidify alliances with the new administration.
Trump is expected to maintain existing relations with partners in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. In the Middle East, he will likely continue strong support for Israel, and limit US involvement in Palestinian governance. In Africa, Trump’s focus will likely be on strengthening economic ties with key nations like South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, and Morocco.
Contact us today for a detailed & in-depth risk evaluation of the potential geopolitical, trade, and security implications following the recent U.S. Presidential Elections. For more information about our services, please visit our website or contact our Regional Director, Bhargav Reddy at bhargav_reddy@apacassistance.com.
Don’t wait for a crisis to test your preparedness. Partner with APAC Assistance and benefit from our proven expertise in safeguarding your
operations. Together, we can build a safer, more secure future for your company.