Implications of the Rebels’ Seizure of Goma City

The Congo River Alliance (AFC) took control of Goma city in North Kivu Province yesterday. The AFC includes the March 23 Movement (M23) alongside other rebel groups and political factions. This marks the M23 rebels’ first capture of Goma since 2012. The takeover follows intensified clashes with Congolese security forces and peacekeepers and has significant geostrategic and security implications for the region. It raises the risk of a full-scale war between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The fall of Goma also underscores vulnerabilities in the DRC’s security, exploited by both the rebels and Rwanda, particularly after the East African Community Regional Forces (EACRF) withdrew in December 2023. The partial withdrawal of United Nations peacekeepers (MONUSCO) in June 2024 may have further emboldened the rebels. Meanwhile, the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), which replaced the EACRF, faces challenges due to limited resources and inadequate geographical familiarity. Read on to understand the key geostrategic and security implications of the Rebels’ Seizure of Goma City.

Recent security developments amid escalating clashes between the rebel alliance and security forces are as follows:

  • Seizure of Sake and Minova towns: Over the past week, rebels captured Sake in Masisi territory, about 25 km northwest of Goma, and Minova in Kalehe territory, approximately 45 km from Goma. Both towns are located along key supply routes to Goma. Other captured areas include Masisi, Lumbishi, Numbi, and Shanje.
  • Air travel disruptions: Rebels announced the closure of Goma’s airspace yesterday, following the authorities’ decision to block access to Goma International Airport and cancel all flights a day earlier.
  • Clashes with peacekeepers: Fighting near Goma on January 24-25 resulted in 13 peacekeeper deaths and 18 injuries. Among the fatalities were seven South African soldiers from the Southern African Development Community Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), along with two other South Africans, three Malawians, and a Uruguayan soldier serving with the United Nations peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO).
  • High-profile casualties: North Kivu’s Governor General Peter Cirimwami was killed on January 25 while overseeing military operations near Goma.
  • Suspension of diplomatic relations: On January 25, the DRC severed all forms of cooperation with Rwanda, accusing Kigali of supporting M23 rebels. Rwanda denies these allegations.
  • Deployment of Rwandan troops: Open-source intelligence reports suggest the presence of Rwandan soldiers in Goma and other parts of eastern DRC.
  • Regional and global reactions: Kenyan President William Ruto, chair of the East African Community (EAC), called for an immediate and unconditional end to hostilities. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council urged the M23 rebels to halt their offensive and withdraw.
Implications of the Rebels’ Seizure of Goma City
Rebels advancing to Goma
Source: BBC News

The seizure of Goma is a strategic move for the rebels and Rwanda, with significant geostrategic and security implications for the DRC and the region. Rwanda has deployed troops in eastern DRC, including Goma, and along the border, despite denying support for the rebels. Historically, Rwanda has backed armed groups in the DRC to pursue its interests, particularly in minerals.

A direct confrontation between Congolese and Rwandan forces would escalate the region’s instability, complicating security in an area already affected by around 120 armed groups, including the ADF, Mai-Mai militia, Zaire self-defense group, and CODECO.

The Goma offensive, the rebels’ most significant advancement since 2012, underscores the challenges of coordinated security operations against groups like M23. The conflict is unlikely to resolve soon, and the possibility of Rwanda occupying Congolese territory cannot be ruled out.

Eastern DRC’s risk profile remains high, with ongoing fighting expected.