BACKGROUND

Syria continues to grapple with instability and insecurity resulting from prolonged conflict and political turmoil. These issues have significantly disrupted food supply chains, driving a worsening food crisis. The World Food Programme (WFP) reports that over 12.9 million people—more than 60% of the population—are food insecure, with over 3 million facing severe hunger and unable to meet basic caloric needs. Malnutrition is widespread, highlighting the immense strain on resources and livelihoods. Read on to understand the persistent Insecurity, Political Instability & Food Crisis in Syria.

The political transition in December 2024, which saw President Bashar al-Assad replaced by an interim government led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has introduced new complexities. Political instability and ongoing conflicts continue to worsen food supply challenges, hindering the interim government’s short-term response efforts. While long-term improvements are possible, they remain uncertain due to ongoing insecurity. Governance under HTS has further complicated aid delivery, with logistical disruptions and concerns over fair access, particularly for vulnerable minorities. HTS’s contentious history and designation as a terrorist organization have also undermined donor confidence, intensifying the difficulties.

WHAT IS DRIVING SYRIA’S FOOD INSECURITY

Syria’s worsening food crisis stems from ongoing security challenges and systemic failures. Issues such as landmines, contested territories, and active conflicts disrupt food supply chains and hinder agricultural recovery. These security problems are further exacerbated by deep-rooted structural issues impacting food production and accessibility.

 Key factors contributing to the crisis include:

• Agricultural Collapse: Since 2011, over 75% of arable land has been lost due to conflict, climate change, and infrastructure destruction. Wheat production has plummeted, worsening food shortages.
• Water Scarcity: Reduced Euphrates River flows and damaged irrigation systems have severely limited water supplies for farming.
• Resource Shortages: Fertilizer deficits, abandoned farmland, and widespread livestock losses have deepened rural poverty and increased dependence on expensive imports.
• Infrastructure Fragility: Damage to critical transport routes and facilities caused by conflict has disrupted aid delivery and agricultural transport.

These factors have destabilized rural livelihoods, intensified hunger, and heightened ethnic tensions, particularly in areas prone to conflict.

ADDITIONAL STRESS ON RESOURCES

Refugee movements and surging food prices are placing additional pressure on Syria’s fragile resources. Over 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon were already facing hardships in camps, and as of early January, more than 115,000 new refugees have returned to Syria in search of aid despite the unstable conditions. This influx has increased competition for scarce resources, driving food prices even higher. Inflation in staple commodities like wheat and rice, which already saw price hikes of 45% and 30% respectively in 2024, has further worsened affordability and access.

Donor hesitation remains a major obstacle, with the WFP reporting that only 45% of Syria’s aid funding needs were met in 2024. International support has been hindered by concerns about the interim government under HTS, its governance practices, and the potential marginalization of minorities such as Alawites and Kurds. Additionally, escalating Turkish military operations in Kurdish-majority regions have further disrupted aid efforts and heightened regional instability.

ASSESSMENT

Syria’s political transition under HTS poses major challenges to stability and humanitarian efforts. Despite attempts to rebrand as a nationalist movement, HTS’s designation as a terrorist organization undermines its legitimacy. Concerns about its governance, including exclusionary policies and repression, deepen donor skepticism. Combined with ongoing conflicts, regional rivalries, and security issues, these challenges severely limit food supply improvements, disrupt agricultural recovery, and hinder effective aid distribution.

Contact us today for a detailed & in-depth analysis of Syria’s food crisis within the broader context of political instability and geopolitical risks. For more information about our services, please visit our website.

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