Listen to Uday Bakhshi and Sitati Wasilwa discuss the assassinations of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s senior commander. The discussion highlights the anticipated increase in tensions in the Middle East, the rising prospects of a wider conflict in the region, the effect of Haniyeh’s assassination on the ceasefire negotiations, and the business implications that are likely to arise.
Overview
On July 31, Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh and one of his bodyguards were assassinated in Tehran. The incident occurred at around 2:00 AM (local time). Iranian authorities said an airborne guided projectile targeted Haniyeh. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has said Haniyeh’s residence has not disclosed the cause of the assassination. Haniyeh was in Tehran for the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack thus far. Hamas has blamed Israel for the attack. The attack occurred a few hours after a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, was killed alongside two other people in Beirut Lebanon. Around 74 other people were injured in the attack. Israel has claimed that Shukr was responsible for coordinating the July 27 attack that killed 12 youths in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel further claimed that Shukr was the most important aide to Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General. Hamas and Houthi groups have condemned the attack and accused Israel of violating Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Regional and Global Reactions to Haniyeh’s Assassination
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has said Tehran must avenge Haniyeh’s assassination. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa have condemned the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Hussein al-Sheikh, the Secretary General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization has also called out Haniyeh’s murder. Iran said investigations are underway to establish the motive and perpetrator of Haniyeh’s assassination. Qatar labeled Haniyeh’s assassination as a heinous crime and dangerous escalation. It is important to note that Qatar hosts Hamas’ political bureau. China’s Foreign Minister Lin Jian said Beijing firmly opposes and condemns Haniyeh’s assassination. Jian added that a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire is necessary to avoid further escalations in the region. White House has declined to further comment on Haniyeh’s assassination. However, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has said he does not think war in the Middle East is inevitable. Austin noted that the US would defend Israel if the latter is attacked. Turkiye has not accused Israel of Haniyeh’s assassination but stated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of achieving peace. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister has termed Haniyeh’s assassination an unacceptable political assassination warning of further escalations.
Security Implications
The two incidents further raise the risk profile of the Middle East. Retaliatory attacks are likely. If it is established that Israel masterminded Haniyeh’s assassination, then the implications could be far-reaching. Iran could consider targeting Israeli interests in the region. This is due to the incident having occurred within Iran. Earlier this year, an Israeli attack against the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, led to Iran’s retaliation. Pro-Iran proxies are also likely to carry out retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and its allies in the region. Additional clashes between Israel and Hezbollah are expected. Israel has been preparing for a military offensive against Hezbollah in recent weeks. These incidents highlight the wider spillover of the Israel-Hamas war. Haniyeh’s killing could derail ceasefire negotiations. This is in light of the key role played by Haniyeh in the ceasefire negotiations.
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