Are you curious about the latest Middle East developments? Discover the implications of the recently concluded Beijing Declaration in this special brief by Sitati Wasilwa and Dr. Ramu C.M. The Beijing-mediated deal saw 14 Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, reach an agreement to form a unity government that will jointly control a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders and oversee its post-war reconstruction. Tune in to understand this crucial agreement’s full scope and potential business impacts.

OVERVIEW

Fourteen Palestinian political factions, including Hamas and Fatah, signed the Beijing Declaration to form a unified government during a Beijing meeting from July 21 to July 23. This agreement aims to unify Palestinian political and militant factions to establish a unified Palestinian state post-war. However, its implementation is expected to be slow. The success of the declaration would enhance China’s geostrategic influence in the region and its role in the Gaza Strip reconstruction. Nonetheless, Israel and its allies, notably the US, are likely to obstruct its implementation. In the short term, the agreement is not expected to impact the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

BEIJING DECLARATION

China’s Beijing Declaration aims to form a post-war administration in the Gaza Strip with key points including:

• Establishing a state of Palestine based on pre-1967 borders.
• Developing a plan for an interim national reconciliation government in Gaza and the West Bank post-war.
• The interim government will handle post-war reconstruction and election preparations.

Hamas supports the agreement, believing it will prevent external interference in Palestinian affairs, while Israel opposes it, rejecting Hamas’ involvement in Gaza’s administration. This is the most significant reconciliation effort between Hamas and Fatah since 2007.

CONTROVERSIAL HAMAS-FATAH HISTORY

In 2006, Hamas won parliamentary elections and took control of the Gaza Strip violently, following the 2000-2005 Al-Aqsa Intifada between Palestinian militants and the Israeli military. The Hamas-Fatah rivalry dates back to the late 1980s. Before the Israel-Hamas war on October 7, 2023, Hamas controlled Gaza, while the Palestinian Authority, mainly composed of Fatah, controlled parts of the West Bank. Previous reconciliation agreements between Hamas and Fatah were signed in Algiers (2022) and Cairo (2011) but were never implemented. The Palestinian Authority supports a two-state solution and has recognized Israel since the early 1990s, while Hamas does not officially recognize Israel.

IMPLICATIONS

The Beijing Declaration represents a significant step towards resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict post-war by aiming to unify Palestinian political and militant factions for a unified Palestinian state. However, its implementation faces significant challenges, mirroring the unfulfilled Cairo 2011 and Algiers 2022 agreements. These challenges could hinder unity between Hamas and Fatah due to their fundamental differences regarding Palestine’s future. Hamas expects to play a major role in Gaza’s post-war administration, which complicates cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, seen by many as corrupt and an enabler of Israeli occupation. Hamas’s refusal to recognize Israel further strains relations with the Palestinian Authority, which continues to recognize Israel.

The success of the Beijing Declaration heavily depends on regional geopolitical dynamics. If Palestinian factions successfully form a united post-war administration, China stands to gain significant geostrategic advantages, including lucrative reconstruction contracts in Palestinian territories. However, Israel and its allies, particularly the US and the UK, are expected to oppose the declaration. Israel will likely insist on a post-war administration led by the Palestinian Authority or other factions, excluding Hamas. Given their historical dominance in Middle Eastern geopolitics and geoeconomics, the influence of Israel and its allies is unlikely to be easily diminished, even with China’s increased involvement in the region.

Israel has rejected the Beijing Declaration and vowed to continue military operations until Hamas is eliminated. This ongoing conflict exposes businesses operating in the Middle East to various risks, including threats to personnel, physical assets, financial stability, and reputation. Additionally, regional and global businesses face supply chain disruptions due to maritime attacks by the Houthis in areas such as the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean.

For more in-depth risk assessments and bespoke advice on how the security situation may impact your business operations, please reach out to APAC Assistance. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and be prepared to navigate the complex security environment of the Middle East amid the expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

For bespoke and comprehensive risk analysis for travel and operations in the Middle East, please contact our Regional Director, Bhargav Reddy (Bhargav_Reddy@apacassistance.com).