Niger: Security & Political Outlook a Year after the Coup

Welcome to our special brief on the one-year anniversary of the military coup in Niger, featuring in-depth analysis by geopolitical experts Sitati Wasilwa and Dr. Ramu C.M. In this episode, we dive into the escalating instability, the surge in extremist violence, and the profound geopolitical shifts reshaping Niger. From the severance of key Western partnerships to the rise of the Alliance of Sahel States, our experts break down the complex landscape and its far-reaching implications for businesses and international stakeholders. Tune in to gain critical insights and stay ahead of the curve in navigating Niger’s turbulent political and economic environment.

On July 26, 2023, military officers in Niger staged a coup, deposing the elected government under the pretext of addressing ongoing security and economic crises. Despite these justifications, the situation has significantly worsened over the past year. Niger, with a population of 26 million—one of the youngest and poorest in the world—faces severe hardships. The ruling junta has severed ties with key Western international partners and partially with some French corporate interests, leading to sanctions and the suspension of crucial support that constituted nearly half of Niger’s budget. Companies like Orano, the French nuclear fuel entity, continue to operate but face significant challenges.

Geopolitical Shift: Niger, once a crucial ally in combating radical Islamic groups, has lost significant US and French military support, including the withdrawal of a critical US drone base. In a notable geopolitical shift, Niger has cut ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and aligned itself with neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso under the loose framework of the Alliance of Sahel States. This new alliance marks a strategic pivot towards an anti-Western and pro-Russian stance amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. The instability has also stalled major projects, such as the China-backed pipeline, further complicating the region’s economic landscape.

Surge in Extremist Violence: The security situation has deteriorated sharply, with violent killings by rebels and militia groups more than doubling. There has been a marked increase in large-scale attacks, each resulting in at least ten deaths, exacerbating the already volatile environment.

Source: BBC

Uncertain Transition to Civilian Rule: The junta’s promise of a three-year transition to civilian rule appears increasingly unlikely. Internal factionalism within the military adds to the complexity, raising the risk of additional coups. The alignment with pro-Russian and anti-Western alliances complicates any potential return to political stability. Russia’s limited ability to replace the comprehensive support previously provided by Western nations exacerbates these challenges, leading to further instability.

Economic Woes: The severance of Western international partnerships and the imposition of sanctions have worsened Niger’s economic conditions. The import-dependent economy is suffering from border closures and the loss of European Union financial support. This has led to increased costs for basic goods and services, further straining the population.

Business Risks: The volatile security situation and economic downturn have heightened business risks. Development projects and infrastructure improvements have stalled, impacting various sectors. Efforts to find new partners, such as Russia and Iran, have yet to fill the void left by Western disengagement. Security forces are under-equipped and overstretched, discouraging foreign investment. Existing businesses face significant operational challenges, further hindering economic recovery.

Source: Washington Post

The first anniversary of the coup in Niger highlights increased instability and the failure to meet the justifications for the military takeover. Geopolitical shifts and the loss of Western support have created a challenging environment for the country. It is crucial for stakeholders to closely monitor these developments and adapt their strategies accordingly. The ongoing instability, combined with the surge in extremist violence and uncertain political transition, underscores the need for a nuanced and flexible approach to navigating the complex landscape of post-coup Niger.

Stay informed and adapt your strategies by understanding the multifaceted challenges and opportunities in Niger’s evolving landscape.

For bespoke and comprehensive risk analysis for travel and operations in Niger, please contact our Regional Director, Bhargav Reddy (Bhargav_Reddy@apacassistance.com).