Listen to Sitati Wasilwa and Dr. Ramu C.M. discussing the upcoming youth-led pro-reform protests in Nigeria, scheduled from August 1 to August 10. These protests, inspired by similar movements in Kenya, focus on high fuel prices, electricity costs, corruption, and unemployment. This briefing highlights the regional contagion effect, growing public dissatisfaction, the potential for violence, and the opportunity for positive governance changes. Business implications include disruptions to transportation, and supply chains, and increased risks to personnel and assets. Stay informed with our in-depth analysis.
Background
Rumors about the protests became prevalent in early July. The protests have been influenced by similar demonstrations in Kenya. A similarity between the protests in Kenya and those expected in Nigeria is the high involvement of the youth. In both countries, youth feel disenfranchised politically, socially, and economically. The political leadership in Kenya and Nigeria are viewed as out of touch with reality and corrupt as well as less motivated to address issues affecting the youth. The federal government is attempting to take responsibility for the issues raised by the organizers of the protests. This is why it is publicizing statements on criminals infiltrating the protests. There have been attempts by authorities to ban the protests despite the assurance of constitutional guarantees to the demonstrations.
The stance taken by Nigerian authorities is triggered by the fears over similar protests against police brutality that occurred countrywide in October 2020. Violence broke out during the October 2020 protests and the military was deployed. Nonetheless, few tangible reforms were implemented to improve the credibility of the Nigerian police in the aftermath of the protests.
Security Landscape
Last week, President Bola Tinubu said his administration will not tolerate violent protests. However, Tinubu reiterated the need to uphold the right to protest as a constitutional right. In the meantime, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja Nyesom Wike has stated that the anti-government protests will not be allowed in the capital.
Meanwhile, authorities have recalled all riot police officers from personnel and non-essential engagements for deployment ahead of the demonstrations. The military has also called off leaves for personnel. The military has said it will intervene to prevent violence during the nationwide anti-government protests scheduled from August 1 to August 10. The military acknowledges the right to protest but has warned about the protests turning violent based on the organizers’ claims, who have drawn inspiration from similar demonstrations in Kenya. The Department of State Services (DSS) has claimed that criminals intend to take advantage of the anti-government protests and cause unrest. The DSS notes that the protests are politically motivated. The US, the UK, and Canada have issued security alerts ahead of the 10-day nationwide anti-government protests scheduled to commence on August 1. The three countries have cautioned their citizens in Nigeria to avoid getting caught in clashes between protesters and security forces.
Possible Implications
The August 1-10 protests may have an impact on the governance system of Nigeria. It may improve political accountability and as such improve oversight over state-driven corruption which is a major challenge for businesses in Nigeria, including multinationals. The general sentiment in Nigeria is that the federal government is not doing enough to address the plight of the public. The cost of living is increasing primarily due to rising prices of fuel and electricity tariffs. The desperation over high unemployment rates is also increasing. It is worth noting that these issues may not politically destabilize Nigeria in the short term. This is despite concerns over civil unrest due to the protests. Mass disruptions for transportation and travel are anticipated during the demonstrations. Other critical public services are also likely to be disrupted.
For bespoke and comprehensive risk analysis for travel and operations in Nigeria, please contact our Regional Director, Bhargav Reddy (Bhargav_Reddy@apacassistance.com).