The July 16 terrorist attack in Muscat by the Islamic State is unprecedented. Such incidents are rare in Oman. The attack raises concerns over the threat of terrorism in Oman. In this discussion, our Managers Sitati Wasilwa and Uday Bakhshi explore the implications of the attack, the evolution of the Islamic State, and the impact on businesses in Oman.

Background

Nine people died in a terror-related attack in the Wadi al-Kabir area in Muscat on July 16. Terrorists attacked worshippers at the Shiite Imam Ali Mosque using firearms. Police responded to the attack, leading to gunfights. A police officer, five civilians, and three suspects died. The attack occurred during Ashura, a period of Shiite mourning during the Islamic holy month of Muharram. The Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Terror-related incidents are rare in Oman, including Muscat. As such, the July 16 has raised concerns over the threat of terrorism in the country given the rarity of such incidents. The last terror-related incident occurred on February 2, 2022. A US citizen was injured after a knife-stabbing attack in an apartment building in Muscat. The suspect, who was a foreigner, was arrested and deported. Even though, no group claimed responsibility for the attack. This was treated as an isolated incident by the Omani authorities.

Our Analysis

It is evident that the Islamic State has intensified its operations and activities globally this year. Earlier this year, specifically on January 4, the Islamic State categorically announced a new global offensive. Its activities over the last seven months in the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia justify this ambition. This attests to the fact that the Islamic State remains a potent security threat globally. As a matter of fact, the recent attacks by its affiliate – the Islamic State Khorasan Province – in Russia further strengthen this argument. The Islamic State Khorasan Province in June issued threats to attack the Eiffel Tower and the Paris Olympics. This illustrates the overall aim by the Islamic State and its affiliates to destabilize certain geographical locations across the world.

Crucially, the Islamic State is evolving. Some of its affiliates have adopted modern warfare techniques and other strategies. For instance, the Islamic State-Sahel Province has recently embraced the use of drones to target civilians and security forces in Mali. The Islamic State’s affiliates have also stepped-up threats to target major sporting events such as the UEFA Champions League and the Olympics.

The rarity of terror-related incidents in Oman is attributed to elevated and pro-active counter-insurgency measures. These measures primarily focus on strengthening border controls and monitoring the establishment of sleeper cells and other terrorist networks. The fact that terrorist attacks are uncommon in Oman illustrates the high rate of success of these measures. This is despite Oman bordering Yemen which hosts terrorist groups such as the Islamic State-Yemen Province and the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the demonstrable success of Oman’s counter-terrorism measures is robust in light of the ongoing conflict in Yemen involving other armed actors apart from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda.

The Omani authorities will heighten security measures in the aftermath of the July 16 Muscat attack. Additional security forces will be deployed at key locations, including prominent government buildings, religious centers, airports, and land border points. These heightened measures are expected to remain in place going forward. Omani security agencies are anticipated to target potential sleeper cells and other terrorist networks in Muscat and across the country.

For bespoke and comprehensive risk analysis for travel and operations in Oman, please contact our Regional Director, Bhargav Reddy (Bhargav_Reddy@apacassistance.com).