Pakistan recently announced a new multi-pronged campaign against terrorism and religious extremism titled Operation “Azm-e-Istehkam”. The new plan is expected to focus on tackling terrorism through kinetic operations while engaging in talks with the administration in Afghanistan to curb support to groups acting from across the border. The campaign has faced opposition from several political groups for different reasons. Consequently, the government will need to work with law enforcement agencies as well as provincial and local administrations to carry out its plans under the new campaign.
In this special discussion, our team delves into the factors influencing the timing and triggers of the announcement, particularly economic drivers and pressure from investors. The precedents of similar campaigns, their effectiveness, and the potential impact of the new campaign on the security environment in the coming months are also explored.
The operation involves targeted security measures led by the military against terrorist groups, alongside efforts to improve socio-economic conditions. Despite concerns from locals and political parties, the government has pledged not to displace residents. There is also talk of potential airstrikes in Afghanistan to tackle terror groups targeting Pakistan. Meanwhile, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has threatened retaliatory actions against the military. It informally launched Operation Azm-e-Shariat in reaction to the government’s recent security measures. Similarly, the Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar has warned of increased attacks on Pakistani military and Chinese interests in Balochistan as part of its own campaign.
The initiative comes amid a rise in terror attacks, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, where numerous resource projects are located. According to the Centre for Research and Security Studies, the first quarter of 2024 saw 240 terrorist attacks and counter-terror operations resulting in 380 deaths and 220 injuries, with a majority occurring in KP and Balochistan. Additionally, there has been controversy over recent lynching incidents across the country, sparking debates about extremism in Pakistan.
Operation Azm-e-Istehkam, though lacking a detailed government plan, aims to intensify security efforts in volatile areas such as KP and Balochistan. This includes increased deployments of law enforcement, paramilitary, and military personnel. Expectations include enhanced intelligence operations by the Counter Terrorism Department and Pakistani Army in the coming months, likely resulting in casualties and prompting retaliatory terror attacks. Security measures will also be reinforced along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to restrict TTP movements. Despite these efforts, reports indicate TTP control in some KP areas and expansion into Balochistan, as well as urban centers like Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Karachi.
The effectiveness of Operation Azm-e-Istehkam in controlling religious extremist groups like Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) remains uncertain, given TLP’s status as a prominent political entity capable of mobilizing large crowds. Taking measures such as banning or disbanding TLP could provoke significant backlash from conservative and far-right factions in Pakistan. Moreover, divisions within the government and military limit their ability to effectively combat extremism, exacerbated by factions within these institutions that support extremist groups for political influence.
The government’s socio-economic initiatives aim to uplift marginalized communities affected by extremism, but their impact may be limited given the entrenched nature of extremism and Pakistan’s economic constraints. Economic disparities continue to fuel Baloch separatist movements, jeopardizing projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which faces security threats from Baloch groups targeting Chinese nationals. China has warned of potential delays in its Belt and Road investments without improved security.
Public support for Operation Azm-e-Istehkam is lacking, unlike previous operations like Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, which faced criticism for human rights abuses. There are concerns over extrajudicial actions and forced displacements by security forces, potentially triggering civil unrest, especially in rural areas. Opposition parties accuse the government of using operations for political gains. With strained relations with the Afghan Taliban and minimal international support, the operation’s ability to curb terrorism is uncertain, posing further economic and security challenges for Pakistan.
Funding for the Pakistan Counterinsurgency Fund and Coalition Support Fund ended in 2017 without any attempts of renewal. The US has limited its financial support to around USD 26 million annually for tackling drug production and improving law enforcement capabilities since 2018. The reduction of funding from Western countries has severely limited Pakistan’s military capabilities, affecting its ability to sustain large-scale operations. Significant cuts in US military aid since 2018, due to Pakistan’s challenges in controlling terrorism and human rights concerns, have led to suspended drills and restricted use of military assets like aircraft and tanks, exacerbated by fuel shortages. Consequently, Pakistan’s security outlook is anticipated to remain unstable and potentially deteriorate in the near to medium future. The impending security operations could disrupt business activities, especially in resource-rich regions such as KP and Balochistan.