Security Landscape ahead of the Sri Lankan Presidential Elections

OVERVIEW

The 2024 Presidential Election in Sri Lanka, set for September 21, is taking place during a period of political instability and economic challenges. The main candidates are current President Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and leftist candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The nation is still dealing with the aftermath of the 2022 Aragalaya protests, which led to the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Key concerns for this election include political unrest, security risks, economic difficulties, growing inequality, and the impact of IMF-driven reforms.

BACKGROUND

The 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka is pivotal for the nation’s recovery from the 2022 Aragalaya protests, which ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and led to political instability. Current President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in office since July 2022, has overseen efforts to stabilize the economy under a $2.9 billion IMF bailout. Although foreign reserves and inflation have improved, the population continues to struggle with poverty, inequality, and backlash over policies such as budget cuts and tax hikes. The election will serve as a test of the government’s record and readiness for further reform.

**Protesters outside the President Secretariat building in Colombo in 2022**

MAIN CANDIDATES

Ranil Wickremesinghe

Party: Running as an Independent (United National Party or UNP leader)
Political Alignment: Center-right or Liberal-conservative
Background: Ranil Wickremesinghe is a seasoned politician and lawyer, who has served as Sri Lanka’s prime minister a record six times. He became president in July 2022 after Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation following mass protests during the country’s economic crisis. He has been a central figure in Sri Lankan politics for decades, known for his technocratic and pro-market stance.

Sajith Premadasa

Party: Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB)
Political Alignment: Center-left or Social democrat
Background: Sajith Premadasa is the son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa. He entered national politics in the early 2000s, gaining recognition for his focus on social welfare and housing programs. A prominent opposition figure, Premadasa broke away from the UNP in 2020 and has positioned himself as a champion of the poor.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake

Party: National People’s Power (NPP) / Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)
Political Alignment: Far-left or Marxist-Leninist
Background: Anura Kumara Dissanayake is a prominent left-wing politician. He has built his career advocating for socialist ideals, anti-corruption measures, and systemic political reforms. Dissanayake has risen in popularity following the 2022 protests, presenting himself as a candidate for change and a voice against political corruption.

Namal Rajapaksa

Party: Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)
Political Alignment: Right-wing or Conservative-nationalist
Background: Namal Rajapaksa is the son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and a member of the powerful Rajapaksa political dynasty. A lawyer by training, he represents the younger generation of the SLPP and has been involved in politics since 2010. Namal has been criticized for his ties to the controversial Rajapaksa regime but has worked to maintain the nationalist-populist appeal of his family’s political brand.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

As the 2024 Presidential Election nears, concerns are rising due to several key developments. With 39 candidates in the race, the large number is causing confusion among voters, compounded by the complex preferential voting system. Voters rank candidates, and if no one wins over 50% of first-preference votes, lower-ranked candidates are eliminated, and second and third preferences are redistributed until a majority is achieved. This could lead to unexpected shifts in candidate rankings. Fears of potential parliamentary dissolution and heightened tensions between political factions are growing, with economic recovery being a key issue in campaign debates. International observers are expected to monitor the election closely.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

As the Presidential Election approaches, Sri Lanka’s economy continues to struggle with currency depreciation despite a $2.9 billion IMF bailout. The bailout has introduced controversial reforms, such as higher taxes and energy tariffs, impacting businesses and households. While tourism has seen a 30% rise in 2024 compared to 2022, revenues remain 20% below pre-pandemic levels. Export growth in textiles (5%) and agriculture (7%) has shown modest gains, but the trade deficit is still a concern. Investors are waiting for post-election policy clarity, especially regarding tax reforms and social welfare programs.

SECURITY MEASURES

The police will deploy 63,000 officers to oversee security at polling booths and counting centers nationwide. Additionally, 10,000 officers from the Civil Security Force will support the Police, and the Army will be stationed at key economic centers to prevent disruptions. The Police Special Task Force will conduct mobile patrols throughout the election period. Police will use maximum force against anyone exhibiting violent behavior at polling booths on election day.
The Public Security Ministry has announced no curfew will be imposed on election day on September 21. The decision to impose a curfew, if necessary, will be made by the President.
All election campaigning ended by midnight of September 18.

Contact us today for a detailed & in-depth risk assessment regarding the political and security implications of the upcoming Presidential Elections in Sri Lanka. For more information, please visit our website or contact our Regional Director, Bhargav Reddy at bhargav_reddy@apacassistance.com.

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