BACKGROUND
Under President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s transitional government, Syria’s geopolitical and economic recalibration remains ongoing. The leadership is renegotiating military and economic agreements while maintaining ties with Russia but adjusting economic alignments. A key development is the revision of a deal with French shipping giant CMA CGM, removing Iran’s revenue share from Latakia Port. Syria is also increasing diplomatic engagement with Western and Gulf states for sanctions relief and investment. APAC Assistance analyzes these shifts, their impact on military and economic agreements, and insights for corporate stakeholders.
Aerial view of unloaded containers at Latakia Port’s storage area
MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL REALIGNMENTS
Syria’s transitional government is restructuring its external partnerships to support economic recovery, military realignment, and diplomatic re-engagement.
- Latakia Port Agreement: The revised deal with French shipping giant CMA CGM removes Iran’s revenue share while keeping France a key player in Syria’s trade sector.
- Russian Military Presence: Syria is open to retaining Russian bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, negotiating concessions to align with national interests.
- Western & Gulf Engagement: The government seeks sanctions relief and reconstruction funding, with Qatar reopening its embassy and France maintaining commercial interests. Discussions with the US focus on political legitimacy and economic stabilization.
OUR ANALYSIS
Post-Assad Syria is recalibrating its foreign relations through selective renegotiation rather than outright realignment.
- Russia’s Role: Syria seeks compensation from Russia for its past military campaign and is renegotiating operational control over Russian bases in Tartus and Khmeimim rather than eliminating them.
- Economic Realignment: The revision of the CMA CGM port deal, removing Iran’s revenue share, signals Syria’s openness to Western investment while distancing itself from Tehran. However, deeper EU engagement remains stalled due to sanctions.
- US Relations: Efforts to rebuild ties with Washington are complicated by the Syrian government’s links to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which the US considers a terrorist organization.
- Gulf & Turkish Influence: Qatar’s embassy reopening reflects growing Gulf engagement, with Saudi and Emirati investment increasing. Turkey is expanding its economic and security cooperation with Syria, particularly against Kurdish militias and Islamic State remnants.
Syria’s strategy remains fluid, balancing multiple partnerships while avoiding overdependence, though each shift introduces new risks and dependencies.
The container transshipment terminal at the Port of Latakia
Syria’s contracting policies are shifting away from centralized control, favoring investors with capital, technology, and expertise but minimal political ties. Companies should focus on early-stage feasibility studies and technical advisory roles before committing to major investments. Engaging through Gulf and European intermediaries offers a lower-risk approach while navigating regulatory changes.