BACKGROUND
The breakdown of the alliance between President Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte has deepened political divisions in the Philippines, driven by succession disputes, foreign policy clashes, security control issues, and corruption allegations. Tensions rose with an impeachment complaint against VP Duterte and the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte under an ICC warrant for crimes related to his “war on drugs”. APAC Assistance assessed the Power Struggle Ahead of 2025 Midterm Elections in the Philippines.
POLITICAL AND LEGISLATIVE INSTABILITY
VP Sara Duterte is facing impeachment over allegations of fraud, corruption, and an alleged plot to assassinate President Marcos Jr. The complaint, backed by 215 House members—including a significant number from Duterte’s Mindanao stronghold—surpassed the threshold for trial. The Senate trial is expected to begin by July 30, requiring 16 out of 24 votes for conviction. Although President Marcos Jr. has distanced himself from the proceedings, political tensions have intensified following the arrest of former President Duterte.
MAY 2025 MIDTERM ELECTIONS
The power struggle between President Marcos Jr. and VP Duterte is expected to reshape political alliances and influence the legislative landscape ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections. Key battlegrounds include Metro Manila, Central Luzon, and several Mindanao regions. The elections could result in a Marcos-aligned Senate, a Duterte political comeback, or a legislative deadlock.
SECURITY & FOREIGN POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Election-related violence remains a persistent concern in the Philippines. Ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections, authorities have seized over 2,000 firearms and arrested 134 individuals since the election gun ban began. Key violence hotspots include Lanao del Sur, the Maguindanao provinces, and Abra. Concerns over security force neutrality persist due to some officers’ loyalty to the Duterte camp. The risk of mass protests, political mobilizations, and post-election disputes remains high.
Under President Marcos Jr., Philippine-China relations have worsened due to maritime tensions, covert operations, and POGO-linked crime. While Marcos has strengthened defense ties with the US through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), uncertainty remains due to the Trump administration’s “America First” stance and its immigration crackdown, which threatens 370,000 undocumented Filipinos. These dynamics could strain U.S.-Philippine relations and influence future engagements with both the U.S. and China.
Contact us today for a comprehensive assessment of the implications of the Power Struggle Ahead of 2025 Midterm Elections, political fracture, legislative gridlock, and bilateral relations amid the evolving political and security landscape.
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