Donald Trump took the oath of office for his second term as U.S. President on January 20. His inaugural speech largely emphasized domestic priorities. Nevertheless, his initial actions and policy initiatives point to a transformative and disruptive agenda with substantial global implications, especially for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). These changes align with the trends outlined in our detailed November 2024 analysis, accessible here. Read on to know more about the potential Security Implications of Trump’s Policy Changes.
OVERVIEW
Just hours after taking office, Trump signed several Executive Orders that are already reshaping U.S. foreign and domestic policies. Among the most notable actions is the removal of sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank, a move celebrated by supporters as a strengthening of U.S.-Israel relations but criticized for potentially escalating regional tensions. Another significant step was the 90-day pause on foreign aid disbursements, creating uncertainty for U.S. partnerships and posing challenges for African nations dependent on U.S. military and development support. On the environmental front, Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord marks a major break from global climate commitments, sparking concerns about the reputational risks for U.S. multinationals navigating strict international regulations. These early actions highlight the administration’s readiness to redefine U.S. priorities on the global stage.

Source: Axios Media
KEY POLICY AGENDA
Trump’s second-term policy agenda reinforces and escalates his signature “America First” approach. While prioritizing domestic economic revitalization, his foreign policy focuses on redefining alliances, renegotiating commitments, and leveraging U.S. influence in key regions. A notable priority is advancing peace in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas. Trump, alongside the Biden administration, was instrumental in securing the Gaza ceasefire. His advisers, leveraging goodwill with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, played a critical role in persuading Israeli leaders to reach an agreement. The administration has also pledged continued support for Israel’s security while promoting economic initiatives in Gaza to foster stability.
In parallel, Trump remains committed to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, aiming to restore United Nations sanctions lifted under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasized collaboration with allies to invoke the sanctions’ “snapback” mechanism, which requires a referral of Iran for non-compliance by a UN Security Council member such as the UK, France, or Germany. The deadline to preserve this option is October 2025.
The President’s push for reduced U.S. financial contributions to NATO and a stronger defense role for European nations highlights potential strains in transatlantic relations. His focus is on recalibrating NATO’s balance of responsibilities while pursuing expedited negotiations to address the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the administration’s 90-day suspension of foreign aid disbursements aims to conduct a thorough review to better align aid programs with U.S. strategic priorities. However, this pause could disrupt vital security and humanitarian efforts across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, potentially diminishing U.S. influence in these regions. Furthermore, the administration’s anticipated withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord underscores its prioritization of domestic energy production, particularly oil and gas, over international climate commitments. This decision raises significant concerns about the future of global climate cooperation and the compliance challenges faced by U.S. corporations operating under international regulations.

Source: Politico
ASSESSMENT
Trump’s return to office adds new layers of complexity to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Russia-NATO dynamics.
In the Middle East, his policy is expected to prioritize strengthening Israel’s position while downplaying Palestinian sovereignty efforts. Based on his track record and recent appointments, the administration is likely to support Israeli territorial goals, including settlement expansion and annexation.
In Africa, U.S. foreign policy is anticipated to remain largely stable, though targeted adjustments may be introduced. Trump’s administration is likely to respond to China and Russia’s growing influence on the continent with increased U.S. competition. A key focus will be on fostering commercial ties, aligning with the broader objective of countering Chinese and Russian economic footholds in the region.
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